Why Does Everyone Become a Foreign Policy Expert at 11:47 PM?

“I never make predictions, and I never will.” - Will Rogers

Something happens every time there is a crisis somewhere in the world - People who couldn't find that country on a map yesterday suddenly have a fully formed opinion about its foreign policy.

By 11:47 PM, they've solved the conflict.

They know who is right. They know who is wrong. They know what the leaders should do.

And, naturally, they know what everyone else is too stupid to understand.

I've done it too.

You read one article. Then another. Watch a video. Read six comments. Suddenly you feel qualified to brief the United Nations.

This isn't really a geopolitics problem. It's a human problem. We hate uncertainty. So we fill the gaps.

We confuse Knowing with Understanding

One of the strangest things about social media is how quickly information becomes certainty.

A headline becomes an opinion. An opinion becomes a position. A position becomes an identity.

And once it becomes part of our identity, changing our mind starts feeling like losing.

I've seen smaller versions of this in teams.

Someone hears half a conversation. They form a conclusion. Then they spend the next three meetings defending something nobody actually said.

As a manager, I've learned to become suspicious of certainty that arrives too quickly.

Especially my own.

Coaching has taught me something uncomfortable

Sometimes the best question isn't: “What's your answer?”. It is “What do you actually know?”

Then “What are you assuming?” and finally “What would change your mind?”

That last question is particularly useful.

Because if the answer is “nothing”, we're no longer having a conversation. We were only protecting a position.

Leaders don't need faster opinions

They need better judgment. Think about driving.

You don't turn the steering wheel because the car behind you honked.

You look at the road. You check the conditions. Then you decide.

Leadership isn't very different.

The loudest person in the room isn't necessarily the most informed. The fastest decision isn't necessarily the best one. And changing your mind after learning something new isn't weakness.

It's evidence that your brain is still working.

Every few weeks, the world reminds us that complicated problems rarely have simple villains and heroes.

There are shared histories, vested interests, interdependent economies, unknown fears, unbridled egos.

People who have been living with consequences long after the internet has moved on to the next argument. Yet we keep wanting the two-minute version.

We pick the side. Case closed.

Unfortunately, real life doesn't work like that. Neither do teams.

What I've learned

When someone on my team comes to me with an extremely confident answer, I don't immediately ask whether they're right. I ask how they got there.

That's a much more useful conversation.

Because judgment isn't knowing everything.

It's knowing what you know, knowing what you don't, and being willing to find out.

And perhaps that is something we could all practise before posting our next 11:47 PM geopolitical masterclass.

Over the course of time, I've learned that good leaders don't rush to have an opinion. They create enough space to understand the problem first. Curiosity beats certainty.

Especially the kind we acquired five minutes ago.